midweek - 9/20-9/22

rolltide · Sep 19, 2006

41-32-1 +27.7
309.25 out -> 336.95 in (+8.9%)

Flamengo vs Cruzeiro - Brazil Thursday - sometimes you have to just go with the stats and stats say under is the play here. Fla with 3 of last 6 played o2.5 but they are a defensive team and their previous 5 matches were all under. Their home vs road games are really skewed since all derbies can pretty much be considered home games at Maracana. Factoring that in they've played 9/14 unders here and 6/10 unders away. Cruzeiro takes the cake as far as road unders are concerned, failing to score in 5 of their last 6 road games and posting under 2.5 in 9 of 11 trips. Cruzeiro miss 2 important offensive pieces in Martinez and Sandro but also miss important defender Gladstone. Flamengo with a league-worst 13 home goals facing Cruzeiro defense that shut out Palmeiras for 1st time in 9 games. Flamengo/Cruzeiro under 2.5 goals 4/10 @ 1.99 (pinn) - may have a big one for tomorrow

HerzvanRentle · Sep 20, 2006

I've dutched the 1-0, 2-0 & 3-0 correct scores for Motherwell over Queens Park in the CIS Cup. This gives an effective price of 2.86. Better for me than the 1.5 Motherwell on the moneyline. Strong winds in Glasgow tonight. Don't see QP scoring against the SPL side or a currently poor Motherwell routing the div 3 side.

rolltide · Sep 20, 2006

Parana vs Fortaleza - Brazil Wed night - great excitement today for Parana as they return to their "true" home stadium, the intimate Durival Britto, after a 3+ year absence. This stadium has always been a goldmine for Parana and one of the toughest places to play in the league. They have been playing terrible in recent weeks though, but most of those matches were away from home anyway. They will miss important Maiscossuel but still have Beto, Gerson, Cristiano, and Leonardo up front which is a great offense. Fortaleza with several problems for this match missing Mazinho Lima, Alan, Wendell, and Lúcio. They are the league's worst team and are picking the wrong night to face Parana, IMO. I really expected the line to move to -3/4 because of recent Parana form which would have been my top play this year but -1 is still worth a nice stake. Parana -1 goal 5/10 @2.18 (pinn)